Today's Picks
About these picks
The day's highest-rated bets, priced where a market was captured. Placed manually — this app does not
place bets.
Each pick shows the best price available, labeled with its source:
real — a price captured today.
recent — that player's average price for the same bet over
the last 7 days. A real market number, just not today's.
illustrative — no market price exists, so it falls back to
the model's own fair price. That means zero edge by definition.
Odds are pulled twice a day to stay within the data provider's free tier, so some
players won't have today's price.
recent — that player's average price for the same bet over the last 7 days. A real market number, just not today's.
illustrative — no market price exists, so it falls back to the model's own fair price. That means zero edge by definition.
2026-08-19 · top 10 per outcome
Top 10 per market yesterday: 2026-08-18 full record →
- Home Run 4/10
- Hit 9/10
- 2+ Total Bases 5/10
- Walk 5/10
Top Picks
The model's most likely picks for each outcome, before any comparison to the market.
The naive picker ranks tonight's slate by each hitter's own rate over his last 30 games and takes the same top 10. No park, no pitcher, no weather — just who has been doing it lately.
Over 25 live slates the model's top 10 came in 22.0% against the naive picker's 16.8%. Picking a name at random would have come in 10.7%.
Beating random is not an achievement — nobody picks at random. This is the harder comparison, and on some markets it is close to 1.00×.
Every pick counted here was recorded before first pitch and never revised afterwards. The model is retrained through the season and whichever version is live makes that day's picks, so this record runs straight through those changes instead of restarting at each one.
10 picks
2 of these picks share a game
(9 distinct games in the list).
Combining them is riskier than their prices suggest.
Why sharing a game matters
Picks from the same game rise and fall together — one big inning
lifts all of them, a shutout sinks all of them.
| Player | Pitcher | Model prob | Odds
Which price is this?
The median across every book quoting the market, not the best available. That makes the edge conservative: shopping around should beat this number, not fall short of it. The book count sits in the Source column. Which specific book offered it is not recorded — the fetcher stores a consensus, so line shopping is not done here. |
Source | vs this arsenal
vs this arsenal
His xwOBA against the pitch shapes tonight's starter throws, weighted by how often the pitcher uses each one. Then the gap versus his own overall xwOBA, and the same over his last 30 games. |
Form
Form
The strongest change in his last 30 games against his own last 100, favourable one first. An unfavourable move shows only when nothing moved in his favour, prefixed “against”. Not a model input — the deployed model carries no change features. |
Edge vs market
Edge vs market
The model's probability minus the one the bookmaker's price implies. Positive means the model rates it likelier than the market does. The bookmaker's margin is baked into that implied number, so every edge is nudged slightly negative. A small positive edge is noise, not an opportunity. |
1U Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohtani, Shohei LAD
3 HR last 10
Coors Field plays hitter-friendly (109)thin air (0.95 kg/m3) — the ball carrieshot power stretch — last 10 games above his own norm
|
Freeland, Kyle COL | 23.3% | +185 | recent | .505 -.035 | against: Chase rate +22% | -9.5pp | 2.85 |
| Buxton, Byron MIN
cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Smith-Shawver, AJ ATL | 22.6% | +317 | recent | .490 +.058 | steady | +0.1pp | 4.17 |
| Goodman, Hunter COL
same game
Coors Field plays hitter-friendly (109)thin air (0.95 kg/m3) — the ball carries
|
Sasaki, Roki LAD | 22.5% | +344 | illustrative | .454 +.015 | against: Exit velo -2% | — | 4.44 |
| Caminero, Junior TB
cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Scherzer, Max TOR | 21.9% | +357 | illustrative | .421 +.010 | steady | — | 4.57 |
| Alonso, Pete BAL
4 HR last 10
Oriole Park at Camden Yards plays hitter-friendly (110)hot power stretch — last 10 games above his own norm
|
Warren, Will NYY | 21.7% | +320 | recent | .491 +.014 30g .707 | Exit velo +2% | -0.5pp | 4.20 |
| Schwarber, Kyle PHI
Citizens Bank Park plays hitter-friendly (115)platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Alcantara, Sandy MIA | 21.4% | +245 | recent | .536 +.026 | steady | -5.7pp | 3.45 |
| Valdez, Esmerlyn PIT
wind blowing out 6 mphPNC Park suppresses offence (83)
|
Jobe, Jackson DET | 21.3% | +369 | illustrative | .418 -.001 | Chase rate -13% | — | 4.69 |
| Murakami, Munetaka CHW
4 HR last 10
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Holmes, Clay CHC | 20.8% | +381 | illustrative | .608 +.062 | against: Bat speed -2% | — | 4.81 |
| Olson, Matt ATL
3 HR last 10
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Bradley, Taj MIN | 20.7% | +280 | recent | .423 -.021 30g .696 | steady | -3.9pp | 3.80 |
| Moniak, Mickey COL
same game
Coors Field plays hitter-friendly (109)thin air (0.95 kg/m3) — the ball carriesplatoon edge (LHB vs RHP)cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Sasaki, Roki LAD | 19.9% | +1700 | recent | .421 +.015 | against: Barrel rate -51% | +14.7pp | 18.00 |
The naive picker ranks tonight's slate by each hitter's own rate over his last 30 games and takes the same top 10. No park, no pitcher, no weather — just who has been doing it lately.
Over 25 live slates the model's top 10 came in 71.2% against the naive picker's 63.2%. Picking a name at random would have come in 58.0%.
Beating random is not an achievement — nobody picks at random. This is the harder comparison, and on some markets it is close to 1.00×.
Every pick counted here was recorded before first pitch and never revised afterwards. The model is retrained through the season and whichever version is live makes that day's picks, so this record runs straight through those changes instead of restarting at each one.
10 picks
8 of these picks share a game
(5 distinct games in the list).
Combining them is riskier than their prices suggest.
Why sharing a game matters
Picks from the same game rise and fall together — one big inning
lifts all of them, a shutout sinks all of them.
| Player | Pitcher | Model prob | Odds
Which price is this?
The median across every book quoting the market, not the best available. That makes the edge conservative: shopping around should beat this number, not fall short of it. The book count sits in the Source column. Which specific book offered it is not recorded — the fetcher stores a consensus, so line shopping is not done here. |
Source | vs this arsenal
vs this arsenal
His xwOBA against the pitch shapes tonight's starter throws, weighted by how often the pitcher uses each one. Then the gap versus his own overall xwOBA, and the same over his last 30 games. |
Form
Form
The strongest change in his last 30 games against his own last 100, favourable one first. An unfavourable move shows only when nothing moved in his favour, prefixed “against”. Not a model input — the deployed model carries no change features. |
Edge vs market
Edge vs market
The model's probability minus the one the bookmaker's price implies. Positive means the model rates it likelier than the market does. The bookmaker's margin is baked into that implied number, so every edge is nudged slightly negative. A small positive edge is noise, not an opportunity. |
1U Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohtani, Shohei LAD
same game
Coors Field plays hitter-friendly (117)thin air (0.95 kg/m3) — the ball carries
|
Freeland, Kyle COL | 77.2% | -339 | illustrative | .505 -.035 | against: Chase rate +22% | — | 1.29 |
| Pages, Andy LAD
same game
Coors Field plays hitter-friendly (117)thin air (0.95 kg/m3) — the ball carriesplatoon edge (RHB vs LHP)
|
Freeland, Kyle COL | 75.4% | -307 | illustrative | .425 +.038 | steady | — | 1.33 |
| Freeman, Freddie LAD
same game
Coors Field plays hitter-friendly (117)thin air (0.95 kg/m3) — the ball carries
|
Freeland, Kyle COL | 74.0% | -284 | illustrative | .368 -.040 | against: Barrel rate -65% | — | 1.35 |
| Arraez, Luis PHI
same game
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Alcantara, Sandy MIA | 73.2% | -273 | illustrative | .292 -.001 30g .344 | Barrel rate +66% | — | 1.37 |
| Simpson, Chandler TB
same game
9 hits last 10
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)hot contact stretch — last 10 games above his own norm
|
Scherzer, Max TOR | 72.9% | -269 | illustrative | .291 -.001 30g .288 | against: Bat speed -2% | — | 1.37 |
| Betts, Mookie LAD
same game
Coors Field plays hitter-friendly (117)thin air (0.95 kg/m3) — the ball carriesplatoon edge (RHB vs LHP)
|
Freeland, Kyle COL | 72.4% | -262 | illustrative | .329 -.006 | steady | — | 1.38 |
| Díaz, Yandy TB
same game
9 hits last 10
hot contact stretch — last 10 games above his own norm
|
Scherzer, Max TOR | 70.7% | -241 | illustrative | .397 30g .486 | steady | — | 1.42 |
| Simon, Ronny PIT
wind blowing out 6 mphplatoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Jobe, Jackson DET | 70.6% | -240 | illustrative | .347 +.011 | steady | — | 1.42 |
| Tatis Jr., Fernando SD
wind blowing out 7 mph
|
Stock, Robert NYM | 69.4% | -234 | recent | .399 -.015 30g .487 | Barrel rate +42% | +3.8pp | 1.43 |
| Bohm, Alec PHI
same game
8 hits last 10
hot contact stretch — last 10 games above his own norm
|
Alcantara, Sandy MIA | 69.0% | -225 | recent | .352 +.001 30g .354 | Bat speed +1% | +4.2pp | 1.44 |
The naive picker ranks tonight's slate by each hitter's own rate over his last 30 games and takes the same top 10. No park, no pitcher, no weather — just who has been doing it lately.
Over 25 live slates the model's top 10 came in 44.0% against the naive picker's 34.8%. Picking a name at random would have come in 32.5%.
Beating random is not an achievement — nobody picks at random. This is the harder comparison, and on some markets it is close to 1.00×.
Every pick counted here was recorded before first pitch and never revised afterwards. The model is retrained through the season and whichever version is live makes that day's picks, so this record runs straight through those changes instead of restarting at each one.
10 picks
7 of these picks share a game
(6 distinct games in the list).
Combining them is riskier than their prices suggest.
Why sharing a game matters
Picks from the same game rise and fall together — one big inning
lifts all of them, a shutout sinks all of them.
| Player | Pitcher | Model prob | Odds
Which price is this?
The median across every book quoting the market, not the best available. That makes the edge conservative: shopping around should beat this number, not fall short of it. The book count sits in the Source column. Which specific book offered it is not recorded — the fetcher stores a consensus, so line shopping is not done here. |
Source | vs this arsenal
vs this arsenal
His xwOBA against the pitch shapes tonight's starter throws, weighted by how often the pitcher uses each one. Then the gap versus his own overall xwOBA, and the same over his last 30 games. |
Form
Form
The strongest change in his last 30 games against his own last 100, favourable one first. An unfavourable move shows only when nothing moved in his favour, prefixed “against”. Not a model input — the deployed model carries no change features. |
Edge vs market
Edge vs market
The model's probability minus the one the bookmaker's price implies. Positive means the model rates it likelier than the market does. The bookmaker's margin is baked into that implied number, so every edge is nudged slightly negative. A small positive edge is noise, not an opportunity. |
1U Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arraez, Luis PHI
same game
Citizens Bank Park plays hitter-friendly (115)platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Alcantara, Sandy MIA | 49.6% | +110 | recent | .292 -.001 30g .344 | Barrel rate +66% | +5.0pp | 2.10 |
| Tatis Jr., Fernando SD
same game
wind blowing out 7 mphhot power stretch — last 10 games above his own norm
|
Stock, Robert NYM | 48.4% | +122 | recent | .399 -.015 30g .487 | Barrel rate +42% | +6.2pp | 2.22 |
| Ohtani, Shohei LAD
6 2+TB last 10
Coors Field plays hitter-friendly (109)thin air (0.95 kg/m3) — the ball carrieshot power stretch — last 10 games above his own norm
|
Freeland, Kyle COL | 47.9% | +109 | illustrative | .505 -.035 | against: Chase rate +22% | — | 2.09 |
| Harper, Bryce PHI
same game
Citizens Bank Park plays hitter-friendly (115)platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Alcantara, Sandy MIA | 47.4% | +111 | recent | .472 +.020 | steady | +3.0pp | 2.11 |
| Abreu, Wilyer BOS
wind blowing out 11 mphplatoon edge (LHB vs RHP)Fenway Park suppresses offence (86)
|
Pfaadt, Brandon ARI | 47.4% | +115 | recent | .421 +.015 | steady | +3.8pp | 2.15 |
| De La Cruz, Elly CIN
Great American Ball Park plays hitter-friendly (118)cold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Liberatore, Matthew STL | 47.2% | +117 | recent | .392 -.031 | Bat speed +2% | +4.0pp | 2.17 |
| Henderson, Gunnar BAL
same game
Oriole Park at Camden Yards plays hitter-friendly (110)platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)hot power stretch — last 10 games above his own norm
|
Warren, Will NYY | 47.0% | +104 | recent | .392 +.008 30g .524 | Chase rate -22% | +1.2pp | 2.04 |
| Machado, Manny SD
same game
wind blowing out 7 mphcold power stretch — last 10 games below his own norm
|
Stock, Robert NYM | 46.7% | +159 | recent | .418 +.012 30g .409 | Chase rate -12% | +10.6pp | 2.59 |
| Alonso, Pete BAL
same game
8 2+TB last 10
Oriole Park at Camden Yards plays hitter-friendly (110)hot power stretch — last 10 games above his own norm
|
Warren, Will NYY | 46.3% | +108 | recent | .491 +.014 30g .707 | Exit velo +2% | +1.4pp | 2.08 |
| Schwarber, Kyle PHI
same game
Citizens Bank Park plays hitter-friendly (115)platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Alcantara, Sandy MIA | 46.1% | +104 | recent | .536 +.026 | steady | +0.2pp | 2.04 |
The naive picker ranks tonight's slate by each hitter's own rate over his last 30 games and takes the same top 10. No park, no pitcher, no weather — just who has been doing it lately.
Over 25 live slates the model's top 10 came in 42.4% against the naive picker's 37.2%. Picking a name at random would have come in 27.6%.
Beating random is not an achievement — nobody picks at random. This is the harder comparison, and on some markets it is close to 1.00×.
Every pick counted here was recorded before first pitch and never revised afterwards. The model is retrained through the season and whichever version is live makes that day's picks, so this record runs straight through those changes instead of restarting at each one.
10 picks
2 of these picks share a game
(9 distinct games in the list).
Combining them is riskier than their prices suggest.
Why sharing a game matters
Picks from the same game rise and fall together — one big inning
lifts all of them, a shutout sinks all of them.
| Player | Pitcher | Model prob | Odds
Which price is this?
The median across every book quoting the market, not the best available. That makes the edge conservative: shopping around should beat this number, not fall short of it. The book count sits in the Source column. Which specific book offered it is not recorded — the fetcher stores a consensus, so line shopping is not done here. |
Source | vs this arsenal
vs this arsenal
His xwOBA against the pitch shapes tonight's starter throws, weighted by how often the pitcher uses each one. Then the gap versus his own overall xwOBA, and the same over his last 30 games. |
Form
Form
The strongest change in his last 30 games against his own last 100, favourable one first. An unfavourable move shows only when nothing moved in his favour, prefixed “against”. Not a model input — the deployed model carries no change features. |
Edge vs market
Edge vs market
The model's probability minus the one the bookmaker's price implies. Positive means the model rates it likelier than the market does. The bookmaker's margin is baked into that implied number, so every edge is nudged slightly negative. A small positive edge is noise, not an opportunity. |
1U Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murakami, Munetaka CHW
7 walks last 10
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Holmes, Clay CHC | 49.8% | +101 | illustrative | .608 +.062 | against: Bat speed -2% | — | 2.01 |
| Valdez, Esmerlyn PIT
same game
wind blowing out 6 mph
|
Jobe, Jackson DET | 45.4% | +131 | recent | .418 -.001 | Chase rate -13% | +5.1pp | 2.31 |
| Ward, Taylor SEA | May, Dustin MIL | 45.3% | +113 | recent | .320 -.052 | Bat speed +2% | +1.7pp | 2.13 |
| Nootbaar, Lars ARI
wind blowing out 11 mph
|
Tolle, Payton BOS | 44.9% | +103 | recent | .217 -.134 | steady | -1.0pp | 2.03 |
| Suzuki, Seiya CHC
platoon edge (RHB vs LHP)
|
Newcomb, Sean CHW | 44.8% | +115 | recent | .444 +.024 | steady | +1.5pp | 2.15 |
| Lindor, Francisco NYM
6 walks last 10
wind blowing out 7 mph
|
King, Michael SD | 44.7% | +145 | recent | .407 +.022 | steady | +6.7pp | 2.45 |
| Wetherholt, JJ STL
5 walks last 10
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Burns, Chase CIN | 44.3% | +118 | recent | .458 +.077 30g .433 | Chase rate -19% | +1.6pp | 2.18 |
| Horwitz, Spencer PIT
same game
wind blowing out 6 mphplatoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Jobe, Jackson DET | 43.1% | +155 | recent | .343 +.005 | steady | +6.6pp | 2.55 |
| Schwarber, Kyle PHI
5 walks last 10
platoon edge (LHB vs RHP)
|
Alcantara, Sandy MIA | 42.9% | -123 | recent | .536 +.026 | steady | -8.6pp | 1.81 |
| Bogaerts, Xander SD
wind blowing out 7 mph
|
Stock, Robert NYM | 41.5% | +226 | recent | .366 +.013 30g .267 | Chase rate -27% | +13.0pp | 3.26 |
Best price
Of each market's top picks tonight, the one the market is pricing most generously — and why it stands out.
No captured prices for 2026-08-19 yet. This section ranks each market’s top picks by the price actually on offer, so it stays empty until the day’s odds are pulled — usually shortly after the morning run. The picks above do not depend on it.